tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63681782009-02-21T03:15:06.859-05:00Framework"Everysooften" Market Analysisscottcolburynoreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1100208679957827062004-11-11T16:32:00.000-05:002004-11-11T16:31:19.956-05:00Ok, so my last little expirement didn't last long at all. Not surprised really. Probably a little too much work to read two newsletters, synthesize and then post my own opinion. So I'll forget about Favors and Ryan for now. I'm still watching wavespeak. Might as well, I pay for it. So, now I'm going to try just posting an opinion. Will this last? Maybe not, but recent action has brought us to a scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1098290478680265232004-10-20T13:42:00.001-04:002004-10-20T16:36:45.946-04:00Analysis and Predictions: Tuesday 10/19/04
Favors: We could have had a short lived rally on Tuesday/Wednesday, but weakness was expected in to Thursday/Friday. Favors still expects an important short term low by the end of the week. Excurpt:
At this point if the Dow falls below 9861 and a sharpercorrection follows, there should still be very strong support near9750, plus or minus 20 points on scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1098218327453692742004-10-19T16:40:00.000-04:002004-10-19T16:38:47.456-04:00Monday
10/18/04
Favors: 1 or 2 day pullback then a rally beginning Thursday or Friday to significantly higher highs for the year.
WS: Heading lower immediately. No real forecast looking forward. Elliott Charts are messy.
*Note, Ryan was dead wrong with his forecast from Friday.
10/19/04
Market Action
Swift initial strength for about 1 hour.
Then a sharp reversal and a weakness drift for the scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1098217708964729282004-10-19T16:21:00.000-04:002004-10-19T16:28:28.963-04:00I'm starting a new "feature"... haha
I'm going to start comparing the Jerry Favors report with Wavespeak (Ryan Henry) to try and determine wh is a better market forecaster. Basically, how well can each analyst predict market paths.
As often as I can I will post a summary of Jerry and Ryan's market analysis and predictions. Predictions will be posted on a one day lag along with what actually scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1092919154151963172004-08-19T08:40:00.000-04:002004-08-19T08:39:14.153-04:00A recent market perspective letter from Shenkman Capital (www.shenkmancapital.com) cited "seven major uncertainties" as "adversley affecting market psychology:
- high oil prices
- the Iraqi conflict
- the threat of domestic terrorism
- rising interest rates
- inflation
- the sustainability of corporate profits
- the outcome of the Presidential election"
While I agree with all of these factors, scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1092750827786730872004-08-17T09:50:00.000-04:002004-08-17T09:53:47.786-04:00Email excurpt to fellow Elliott fan,
I think Jerry (Favors) is right on here.I'm still wary of two things however.
Yesterday's rise could be the start of the fifth wave of a largerimpluse that began somewhere around October 2002. That would makesense since wave 2 was sharp between Nov & Mar and the 4th wave took alooooooooong time between Jan/Feb and Aug (last Friday). And thisentire rise (scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1092419747234110392004-08-13T13:52:00.000-04:002004-08-13T13:55:47.233-04:00Just read this on Marketocracy.com and thought it was interesting.
(by fmoslehi 8/21/01)
There are several mega trends that are working their way through the system. Over the next decade about 10 trillion dollars will be passed in the form of inheritance from the "greatest generation" to the "instant gratification generation". Now those older folks in their 70s and 80s do not have their assets scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1092407833601519422004-08-13T10:37:00.000-04:002004-08-13T10:37:13.600-04:00So it has been quite some time since I posted anything. I won't appologize as I've been very busy. New job, summer, etc... but I'm going to get back on the horse and start posting again.
My very last blog said that the FED was going to wait to raise rates. Well, since that time Greenspan et al have raised the FED Funds rate .50% (.25% twice). I think this was expected. A few/many thought the FEDscottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1076085372697671412004-02-06T11:26:00.000-05:002004-02-06T11:38:35.653-05:00This is a recent email I sent to my father. The day before I sent him an email telling him I was going to start selling some stock investments and I thought it was a good idea if he and my mother (both turning 55 this year) start moving some of their retirement funds to more conservative accounts. My parents have always took a conservative approach to investing, which may help to explain some of scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1076019914495776102004-02-05T17:17:00.000-05:002004-02-05T17:27:36.420-05:00Well, I hate to admit it, but I think we might be there. After a slew of bad earnings reports yesterday and today and an article I read today about the tech bubble, I think we are very near the top of this most recent "credit" bubble. Which side of the curve we are on I can not say. The article I am referring to was posted today on the Daily Reckoning (a recent favorite of mine). The author scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1075992880503894482004-02-05T09:43:00.000-05:002004-02-05T09:57:01.610-05:00I need to make a correction from my last posting. I mention that the major indicies were down for the month of January. In reality the Q's closed at 36.46 on 031231 and 37.07 on 040130, a gain of .61. Also the DIA and SPY rose .58 and 2.2 respectively from the close on 031231 to the close on 040130. When I was writing the last post the indicies were all down. But nonetheless, a lackluster Januaryscottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-107549509495405782004-01-30T14:28:00.000-05:002004-01-30T15:40:28.513-05:00Well, a popular theory states that market action in the month of January sets the tempo for the rest of the year. If this saying stays true this year then I would already like to congratulate R.N. Elliott and Mr. Prechter for showing me the light.
As I am writing this, the three major indexes are in negative territory, not only for the day, but for YTD. True it has only been a month, but it scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1075353139387411222004-01-29T00:06:00.000-05:002004-01-29T00:14:30.903-05:00So the FED came out today and said they will be "patient" with the FED Funds target rate. It seems almost immediately that analyst all over Wall Street agreed that the first interest rate increase will be this summer, probably around June. While this may very well happen, I think these analyst are missing the bigger picture. It really doesn't matter when the FED changes the rates. Only that theyscottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1074957976361329552004-01-24T10:08:00.000-05:002004-01-24T10:28:21.496-05:00So after a little more reading yesterday, I was convinced that the market had already entered into a bear market, and perhaps I was already a little too late. But then I stumbled onto http://www.elliottwavemarkettiming.com/. This seems to be an acurate labeling of the current position of the market. I still have to validate their analysis for myself, but if they are correct then it appears that scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1074876872194288582004-01-23T11:44:00.000-05:002004-01-23T11:56:36.340-05:00So, the Q's followed a very predictable Elliot Wave pattern yesterday.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=qqq&time=&freq=
Today the pattern continued with what appeared to be an extended 2nd or 4th wave.
Either way, the Q's are definitely in a short term downtrend, if not a long term one.
I've been reading "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Pretcher and his analysis of scottcolburynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6368178.post-1074790930214010832004-01-22T12:01:00.000-05:002004-01-22T12:04:12.920-05:00This will be the location of my new blogger account. Read if you like.scottcolburynoreply@blogger.com