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Thursday, November 11, 2004

Ok, so my last little expirement didn't last long at all. Not surprised really. Probably a little too much work to read two newsletters, synthesize and then post my own opinion. So I'll forget about Favors and Ryan for now. I'm still watching wavespeak. Might as well, I pay for it. So, now I'm going to try just posting an opinion. Will this last? Maybe not, but recent action has brought us to a potential turning point in the market, so I feel today is as good a time as any to begin.

If my memory serves me, I think I stated back at the beginning of the year when we got into this tight range that come Oct/Nov there might be some fireworks. The election gave us what we were looking for and now I have to make a choice... Do I hold on to positions in the anticipation that markets continue further northbound, or do I dump most everything into cash with the exceptation that markets are going to crash. All three major indicies are at or near 2004 highs and technicals are all overextended. Yet, now that we know we're getting 4 more years of the same (for better or worse) the markets can relax. And so they have. The VIX is .4 points away from an all time low. Plus I feel like this calm has added to the momentum in the market. The 4th FED rate hike this year didn't dampen spirits.

So here's the summary. Extended technicals, yearly highs, extreme calm, decent momentum. Where do we go from here. I'd like to say even higher, but I just can't buy into it. I'd like to jump into cash and preserve capital but I don't want to miss out on what could be the next nice little push up.

What to do, what to do!!!

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